Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://biore.bio.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4166
Title: Biophysical and bioinformatics approach to study sociodemographic and weather impacts on the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmissibility
Authors: Salom, Igor
Rodic, Andjela 
Milicevic, Ognjen
Zigic, Dusan
Ilic, Bojana
Djordjevic, Magdalena
Djordjevic, Marko 
Keywords: compartmental model;bioinformatics;COVID-19;basic reproduction number;environmental effects
Issue Date: Jun-2021
Rank: M32
Publisher: Department of Biology and Ecology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad
Journal: Biologia Serbica
Conference: Belgrade BioInformatics Conference 2021, 21-25 June 2021, Vinča, Serbia
Abstract: 
Biophysicists from the Faculty of Biology, in collaboration with scientists and teachers from the Institute of
Physics and the Faculty of Medicine, conducted a study of the influence of demographic and climatic fac -
tors on the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission in the population. A nonlinear dynamic compartmental model
of epidemic spread was constructed and combined with a bioinformatics approach (collection and analysis
of large amounts of data) and the analysis of widespread patterns of infection growth (scaling relations in
biophysics). The obtained results indicate that several demographic and meteorological factors significantly
affect the basic reproduction number - a measure of the inherent transmission of the virus in a population
with given demographic characteristics and weather conditions in the absence of control measures.
The disproportion between the intensive spread of the infection in Wuhan (Hubei) and the much smaller case
counts in other Chinese provinces was also analyzed. It has been suggested that this puzzle can be explained
by a combination of significantly higher inherent virus transmission in Wuhan and greater effectiveness of
epidemic control measures in other provinces.
Overall, the results of these analyzes indicate that the dynamics of epidemic spread may significantly depend
on potentially highly heterogeneous and seemingly random factors, such as variations in demographic and
meteorological conditions, as well as their complex interaction with introduced control measures. Under-
standing these factors is crucial, not only for risk estimation during a pandemic but also for long-term
prediction of virus behavior in a population if the COVID-19 disease becomes endemic.
Description: 
Biologia Serbica, JUNE 2021, Vol. 43 - No. 1 Special Edition
Predavanje po pozivu održala Anđela Rodić.
URI: https://biore.bio.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4166
ISSN: 2334-6590
Appears in Collections:Conference abstract

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