Biophysical and bioinformatics approach to study sociodemographic and weather impacts on the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmissibility

Abstract

Biophysicists from the Faculty of Biology, in collaboration with scientists and teachers from the Institute of Physics and the Faculty of Medicine, conducted a study of the influence of demographic and climatic fac - tors on the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission in the population. A nonlinear dynamic compartmental model of epidemic spread was constructed and combined with a bioinformatics approach (collection and analysis of large amounts of data) and the analysis of widespread patterns of infection growth (scaling relations in biophysics). The obtained results indicate that several demographic and meteorological factors significantly affect the basic reproduction number - a measure of the inherent transmission of the virus in a population with given demographic characteristics and weather conditions in the absence of control measures. The disproportion between the intensive spread of the infection in Wuhan (Hubei) and the much smaller case counts in other Chinese provinces was also analyzed. It has been suggested that this puzzle can be explained by a combination of significantly higher inherent virus transmission in Wuhan and greater effectiveness of epidemic control measures in other provinces. Overall, the results of these analyzes indicate that the dynamics of epidemic spread may significantly depend on potentially highly heterogeneous and seemingly random factors, such as variations in demographic and meteorological conditions, as well as their complex interaction with introduced control measures. Under- standing these factors is crucial, not only for risk estimation during a pandemic but also for long-term prediction of virus behavior in a population if the COVID-19 disease becomes endemic.