Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://biore.bio.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4162
Title: Effects of demographic and weather parameters on COVID-19 basic reproduction number
Authors: Salom, Igor
Rodic, Andjela 
Milicevic, Ognjen
Zigic, Dusan
Djordjevic, Magdalena
Djordjevic, Marko 
Keywords: COVID-19 transmissibility;environmental factors;basic reproduction number;COVID-19 demographic dependence;COVID-19 weather dependence
Issue Date: 25-Jan-2021
Rank: M21
Journal: Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
Volume: 8
Start page: 617841
Abstract: 
Timely prediction of the COVID-19 progression is not possible without a
comprehensive understanding of environmental factors that may affect the
infection transmissibility. Studies addressing parameters that may influence
COVID-19 progression relied on either the total numbers of detected cases and
similar proxies and/or a small number of analyzed factors, including analysis
of regions that display a narrow range of these parameters. We here apply a
novel approach, exploiting widespread growth regimes in COVID-19 detected case
counts. By applying nonlinear dynamics methods to the exponential regime, we
extract basic reproductive number R0 (i.e., the measure of COVID-19 inherent
biological transmissibility), applying to the completely naive population in
the absence of social distancing, for 118 different countries. We then use
bioinformatics methods to systematically collect data on a large number of
demographics and weather parameters from these countries, and seek their
correlations with the rate of COVID-19 spread. In addition to some of the
already reported tendencies, we show a number of both novel results and those
that help settle existing disputes: the absence of dependence on wind speed and
air pressure, negative correlation with precipitation; significant positive
correlation with society development level (human development index)
irrespective of testing policies, and percent of the urban population, but an
absence of correlation with population density per se. We find a strong
positive correlation of transmissibility on alcohol consumption, and the
absence of correlation on refugee numbers, contrary to some widespread beliefs.
Significant tendencies with health-related factors are reported, including a
detailed analysis of the blood type group showing consistent tendencies on Rh
factor, and a strong positive correlation of transmissibility with cholesterol
levels.
URI: https://biore.bio.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4162
ISSN: 2296-701X
DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.617841
Appears in Collections:Journal Article

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