Destiny of Two Caddisfly Species under Global Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change is considered one of the greatest threats to freshwater biodiversity. Although freshwater biodiversity is an important contributor to economic, scientific, and cultural aspects of human society, freshwater species, especially invertebrates, tend to be neglected in conservation studies. This fact also raises the question of the suitability of protected areas (PAs) for the conservation of freshwater biodiversity. In our study, we used species distribution models (SDMs) to examine the effects of climate change on the two trichopteran species Helicopsyche bacescui Orghidan and Botosaneanu, 1953 and Thremma anomalum McLachlan, 1876. We determined which areas in the Balkans and neighboring countries might be lost to or colonized by these species in the future, and tested the effectiveness of PAs for the conservation of freshwater biota. While H. bacescui will potentially lose up to 68% of its range, T. anomalum could expand its range by up to 72%. Both species tend to shift their range mainly to the Carpathian Mountains. Our results suggest that currently established PAs are insufficient to cover the potential current and predicted future ranges of the studied species. The study therefore highlights the need to combine aquatic and terrestrial systems in the future designation of protected areas.