Trends of the Prevalence of Pre-gestational Diabetes in 2030 and 2050 in Belgrade Cohort

Abstract

The aim of this study was to analyze the trends in diabetes in pregnancy in Belgrade, Serbia for the period of the past decade and forecast the number of women with pre-gestational diabetes for the years 2030 and 2050. The study included the data on all pregnant women with diabetes from the registry of the deliveries in Belgrade, by the City Institute of Public Health of Belgrade, Serbia for the period between 2010 and 2020 and the published data on the deliveries on the territory of Belgrade. During the examined period the total number of live births in Belgrade was 196,987, and the prevalence of diabetes in pregnancy was 3.4%, with the total prevalence of pre-gestational diabetes of 0.7% and overall prevalence of GDM of 2.7%. The average age of women in our study was significantly lower in 2010 compared to 2020. The forecasted prevalence of pre-gestational diabetes among all pregnant women for 2030 is 2% and 4% for 2050 in our cohort. Our study showed that the prevalence of pre-gestational diabetes has increased both among all pregnant women and among women with diabetes in pregnancy in the past decade in Belgrade, Serbia and that it is expected to increase further in the next decades and to further double by 2050.