Population Viability Analysis of the Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus in Macedonia and Implications for Its Conservation

Abstract

We used VORTEX 9.99 to run 21 simulations on the viability of the population of the Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus in Macedonia. Our baseline scenario indicated that there is a high probability of total extinction of the Egyptian Vulture from Macedonia within 50 years, with mean and median time periods to first extinctions being 26 and 25 years, respectively. Productivity rates have little influence on the persistence of the population, and conservation actions should be focused on reduction in the mortality rate not only in the breeding regions but also along the migration routes and in the wintering quarters. The possible supplementation of population would be justified only if the programme is accomplished together with some in-situ conservation measures. The number of the released juveniles in such a programme will have a clear effect on the viability of the population. Further research is urgently needed in order to identify the migration routes and wintering areas of the birds that breed or fledge in Macedonia, as well as to determine the actual mortality rates among the different age classes, since our results have indicated that the numbers used in this study may be considered too optimistic. Great care in planning of the future infrastructural and touristic development of the country and more efforts to control the illegal use of poison are also needed in order to protect the Egyptian Vulture from extinction in Macedonia. Currently, the species should be considered as Critically Endangered at national level.